Therefore, in order to control the expected spread of the disease-which in the early stages of the infection typically mimics an exponential law-and to contain its consequences, most governments and national authorities have adopted a containment strategy, namely a lockdown policy. In the absence of specific treatments, such is the case of Covid-19 at today, there is a limited capability to control the likelihood of the transmission (i.e., vaccine) or the recovery rate (i.e., specific drugs). (iii) the removal rate, that is the rate at which infected people recover or die (assuming that recovered people becomes immune). (ii) the specific virus characteristics (i.e., the likelihood of transmission between an infected and a susceptible if they get in contact) (i) the environment and the social behaviors (i.e., the probability that infected people get in contact with susceptible people) It is well known in the literature that the basic virus reproduction number depends on several factors such as Following the early stages of the Covid-19 virus outbreak, scientists were able to estimate both the basic reproduction number and the lethality of this aggressive and infective disease: that made very clear the level of risk that this virus represents. The spread of Covid-19 around the world in 2020 has called for appropriate responses from the governments. ![]() (ii) model the latency occurring between the changes in social behaviors and the changes in growth rate of the disease. Finally, we made an attempt to identify some key lockdown performance parameters in order to: (i) establish responsiveness, efficiency and effectiveness of the lockdown measures. Subsequently, we used data made available by John Hopkins University in the attempt to compare changes in people behaviors with the evolution of COVID-19 epidemic (confirmed cases, new and cumulative) in each country in scope. These data were first analyzed in relation with the evolution of political recommendations and directives to both assess (i) responsiveness of governments in taking decisions and (ii) the implementation performance in each country. (iv) The effects of social distancing on the epidemic evolution. (iii) The lockdown implementation performance in each country. (ii) The coherence of the lockdown policy with changes in mobility data. (i) The responsiveness of the governments in taking decisions. and Google, as an indirect measure of social distancing over time since we believe they represent a good approximation of actual changes in social behaviors. We used phone mobility data, published by Apple Inc. In this context, we performed an analysis of the effects of government lockdown policies in 5 European Countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom). ![]() Therefore, to limit the expected exponential spread of the disease and to reduce its consequences, most national authorities have adopted containment strategies that are mostly focused on social distancing measures. In the absence of specific treatments (vaccine, drugs) for COVID-19 there was a limited capability to control the likelihood of transmission or the recovery rate. The former one depends on several factors (environment and social behavior, virus characteristics, removal rate). ![]() Scientists estimated both the basic reproduction number and the lethality of the virus. The worldwide COVID-19 outbreak has dramatically called for appropriate responses from governments. 2Resiliency Services, IBM, Milano, Italy.1School of Mathematics, Computer Science and Engineering, Liverpool Hope University, Liverpool, United Kingdom.Emanuele Lindo Secco 1* and Stefano Conte 2
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